Pre-Super Bowl Hot Takes
Political intrigue abounds in DC and Tallahassee...and a few football predictions
So much for 2025 being an “off year” for politics and political campaigns.
I’ll start in Florida because there are a lot of moving parts at the statewide-office level.
DeSantis’ unprecedented statewide appointments
Gov. Ron DeSantis floated his wife, Casey, as a potential gubernatorial nominee in 2026 when the governor is ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits.
The LG spot is open because current LG Jeannette Nunez has been appointed the interim president of Florida International University (FIU).
Add to that the open CFO/Treasurer position due to Jimmy Patronis’ resignation to run for U.S. House and the open Attorney General position to replace Ashley Moody who was successfully appointed to the U.S. Senate, and Gov. DeSantis will appoint half the Cabinet and LG during the next two months or so.
It is speculated that the governor will appoint to LG the person who he wants to replace him as governor. Does he truly appoint his wife LG? Conventional wisdom suggests that the optics of that would be pretty bad. But, the last time there was an appointment to LG by a sitting governor, Rick Scott took 10 months to appoint Jennifer Carrol’s replacement.
The one thing we know about Gov. DeSantis is that he uses threats and bribes to get his way, and I expect he will take his time on this appointment, milk as much as he can from as many as he can along the way, and is floating his wife’s name as a successor to slow the momentum of Congressman Byron Donalds, who is speculated to get Pres. Trump’s endorsement. So, don’t hold your breath on a quick appointment on this one.
DeSantis is speculated to appoint his Chief of Staff James Uthmeier. Right now, there aren’t many names being speculated for attorney general who would take Uthmeier on in a primary. So, like Ashley Moody, he may have the opportunity to balance both DeSantis’ and Trump’s support to avoid a primary. We will likely find out in short order if someone does decide to throw their hat in the race for Atty. General.
***as a tangent - It appears Ashley Moody has filed paper work with the Federal Elections Commission to run for election in 2026 (although it is unavailable and is processing). She does not appear on the state’s website yet, however. If she has filed her federal paperwork, it would put rumors to rest that she is a placeholder for Gov. DeSantis.
For Chief Financial Officer (CFO) it is speculated that DeSantis will appoint Sen. Blaise Ingoglia who will face a primary challenge from already-Trump-endorsed Sen. Joe Gruters.
While the governor is trying to reshape Florida in his image for another eight years, there is a cautionary tale for him from a little county commission race in Sarasota, FL in 2024.
There was a vacancy on the Sarasota County Commission due to the death of popular Nancy Detert. Former Sheriff Tom Knight and party activist Neal Rainford both applied to fill the vacancy. The governor appointed Rainford instead of the popular former sheriff. This was an epic race, and the most expensive in the history of Sarasota County with both candidates being well-funded in both their campaigns and political committees.
DeSantis-endorsed candidate Neal Rainford received just 40 percent of the vote in one of the most republican county commission districts in the state. It is important to note that the sheriff, who received 60 percent of the vote, did not receive GOP Nominee Trump’s endorsement but won this race on his own reputation.
DeSantis will be on his way out of office. How do you think DeSantis-supported candidates are going to fare against candidates endorsed by Pres. Trump?
I’m not sure why DeSantis is picking this fight with the sitting republican president.
I’m not sure why he wants to put his allies in a position, like he put Neal Rainford in Sarasota, because candidates endorsed by Pres. Trump are going to get 60 percent or more in those primaries.
DeSantis is setting up the exact scenario I have been warning about for two years that gives an opening to a well-funded candidate like Democrat Sen. Jason Pizzo to run for and win governor.
Mayfield denied ballot access by DeSantis
It seems the DeSantis retribution tour continues. I don’t think in his life post-governor, he will be writing a book about how to make friends and influence people.
Sen. Mayfield was ineligible to run for reelection in the district she represented in 2024 due to term limits. Randy Fine ran for the seat and won. Sen. Fine was sworn in, served during the special session. called by Gov. DeSantis, is expected to be seated during Florida’s regular session in March, but is resigning to run for a U.S. House seat causing a vacancy for the senate seat.
Mayfield was elected to a state house seat in 2024 and served in that seat during the special session and is expected to serve the beginning of the regular session that starts in March.
Mayfield filed paperwork to qualify for the open senate seat she served.
Secretary of State Cord Byrd disqualified her papers because she has not been out of the senate seat for a full term.
The question becomes, how long does someone have to vacate a seat before they are eligible to run for it again?
The Florida Constitution does not suggest an amount of time that someone must be out of a seat before they are eligible to run for that seat. The Constitution says that someone is ineligible to run for office after serving eight years.
From Aricle VI Section 4 paragraph c “Disqualifications and the offices it applies to”
“…if, by the end of the current term of office, the person will have served (or, but for resignation, would have served) in that office for eight consecutive years.”
In other words, you can’t resign early to create a vacancy to run when you would have been term limited, but someone is eligible once someone else fills the position and vacates the office.
Mayfield’s other legal position, which is strong, is that the Secretary of State does not have the authority to determine who can or cannot appear on the ballot and the SoS is an administrator only. Mayfield likely wins on both points.
The governor is wrong on this one and Debbie Mayfield should appear on the ballot for state senate during the special election.
***An interesting side note for my friends who are political nerds (I’m assuming if. you’ve read this far that you are). This issue will likely require the Legislature to revisit whether senators whose terms traverse redistricting years are in violation of the Constitution by giving themselves terms of 10 years instead of eight. Florida voters wanted a maximum of eight years, but for more than two decades now, senators have manipulated the numbering of their districts so some receive terms of 10 years.
Unsolicited Advice for Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson
Simpson is the one statewide elected official who is not subject to term limits in 2026. He is speculated to run for governor in what may turn into a crowded field of at least one other endorsed by DeSantis and another possibly endorsed by Trump.
My unsolicited (and unpaid) advice is to run for reelection for Commissioner of Agriculture.
Yes, it’s a gamble, but it gives you an advantage in several ways.
During what is shaping up to be a very chaotic primary and general, you will be reelected with nominal democrat opposition and no likely primary opposition.
You can raise money and help your preferred candidates up and down the ballot making you the statewide GOP leader.
You will be the senior and most experienced person on the Cabinet giving you a much larger voice than you currently have.
There is certainly a possibility, if not a likelihood, that a moderate, well-financed democrat could win governor after a chaotic GOP primary; this would make you the “experienced” statewide voice who is the opposition to the democrat governor setting up a situation in 2030 where you are the GOP nominee without a primary to run against the democrat incumbent.
Trump’s Disruptor Presidency Continues!
Not in our wildest dreams did Trump supporters think that he could accomplish so much so fast. It has not been a month, and Pres. Trump has accomplished battles I’ve been advocating for my entire 30 years in politics. THANK YOU PRESIDENT TRUMP!
Recently it is the fraud exposed at USAID which I wrote about here.
Democrats are now crying that Trump has overstepped his authority on spending, believe it or not, their argument is that he MUST spend any appropriations that Congress has passed.
Sorry Charlie (or in this case Chuck Schumer).
Congress has not pass all 12 appropriation acts on time since 1997 and has not balanced the budget since 2001. This isn’t a democrat or republican problem, this is a SWAMP problem.
If Congress doesn’t pass a budget that has gone through the process, I would argue that Congress has abdicated its authority to the president.
Government Employee Buyouts are Delayed
Pres. Trump offered government employees the option to get paid until September if they left their jobs immediately. First, it’s important to know that these are non-essential employees, not doctors and nurses at the Veterans Administration.
A judge delayed the order due to objections by the federal employees union. This is an example of a union protecting its dues at the expense of employees, but that’s a newsletter for another day, because this one is getting quite long.
Now, democrats are arguing that the buyouts “may” not be funded. What? Their salaries through September were funded, so, of course, the buyouts are funded. If Pres. Trump sent them home to “no show” work-from-home jobs, they would be funded. It’s a ridiculous argument.
Long-time Government Employees or partisan, democrat operatives
We now know why every democrat in the U.S. Senate has asked of Trump’s Cabinet nominees, “Will you listen to lifelong bureaucrats if they give you advice to go against the president?”
We’ve learned in three short weeks of this administration that many, not all, lifelong bureaucrats are just partisan, democrat political hacks who have been buried in government for their entire careers.
Democrat senators try to manipulate those they are interviewing to drive a wedge between them and Trump, and it isn’t working. Keep pushing team!
Pres. Trump Saves Girls Sports!
If you didn’t see the video of Pres. Trump signing the executive order saying that only girls can participate in girls sports, you really missed a special moment. He called the girls to surround him at the desk and spoke to them like a compassionate grandfather while he signed their right to compete in sports against their own gender and only their own gender. As he signed the EO, one girls in not much more than a whisper said, “God Bless You Mr. President!” It will really get you. You should be able to watch the video here. “The Secret Service is worried about them? If they have to worry about them we have big problems!”
I have two granddaughters, and one on the way. Thank you for protecting their rights!
Here is a picture of the event.
Jennifer calls me a genius, but also suggests I’m not smart enough to find my own shoes.
Jamie In The News
I am quoted in this news story about the feud in Florida.
If you haven’t signed up for our podcast, you can watch them on YouTube. Here are this week’s episodes including a guest appearance by former Associated Press political reporter Brendan Farrington.
Government Charity Scams UNCOVERED! USAID Fraud and many other topics w/ Brandan Farrington
DeSantis vs. Trump: The Clash of the Titans
Super Bowl Predictions
The Chiefs are still favored by one point - I take this bet because I believe the Eagles will win 24-17.
So I would also take the “under” of 49.5.
I’m not a huge gambler, but if I was, I would take the bet that Chiefs kicker Butker will surpass his Super Bowl record field goal of 57 yards by kicking a 59-yard field goal in Super Bowl 59.
What is your favorite bet for the Super Bowl?
Heads/Tails to start the game?
Who has the ball to end the first half?
Which team gets the first penalty?
Share your favorites in comments!