Swing State Analysis
What races and ballot initiatives are on, or not on, ballots in swing states that may affect the outcome for president?
Series 1 of 3 – The Sun Belt States
Series 1 will analyze swing states in the Sun Belt (Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada).
While future Substacks may look at historical polling trends, this series will analyze the importance and effect of statewide campaigns and ballot measures that have historically driven turnout and outcomes with a review of the 2024 campaigns and ballot measures that will influence this year’s race and whether the Trump or Harris campaign is likely to invest their dollars in the state.
There is a lot of data in this series, but you will want to subscribe for this type of in-depth content that you will not read anywhere else. Yes, I will make predictions based on all of this data for each state, and base a final prediction for the presidency based on this “statewide” ballot model.
As of 2020, nine of the 10 most expensive U.S. Senate races in history occurred with five of those races occurring in the 11 states we are going to study in this series – Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida, and three of these states will be covered in today’s Series 1.
GEORGIA
Georgia is a closely divided state with 41 percent of voters registered as both republicans and democrats with 18 percent with no party affiliation.
Georgia has 16 electoral votes
The U.S. Senate race in Georgia in 2020 for the November race approached a total of $200 million spent between both campaigns and independent expenditures. Expect both campaigns to fight hard for Georgia, but it is not a cheap state in which to compete.
The current 538 polling average has Trump up about one point. Donald Trump held a similar lead in polls in August 2020 against Joe Biden. In 2020, the polling average turned in Biden’s favor about Oct. 1 before Biden won the state by 0.23 percent and 11,779 votes. The polling skewed democrat however with Biden leading Trump in the average by 1.7 percent on Nov. 1.
In 2016 and 2020, there were statewide ballot initiatives and U.S. Senate races on the ballot which helped the democratic nominee for president.
In 2016, the republican incumbent outlasted the democrat to win and there was a ballot initiative that went down to defeat that would have given the state control of chronically failing schools.
An incumbent U.S. Senate candidate in 2016 helped Trump win the state even with the headwinds of a ballot amendment that likely turned out more democrats in the state.
There is not a U.S. Senate candidate on the ballot in Georgia this year. There was not a U.S. Senate race in 2012 either, the republican candidate won president and U.S. Senate in Georgia that year.
In 2020, a GOP incumbent lost in one of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in history and Georgia flipped to Biden, barely, with a ballot measure that likely helped the democratic candidate, just enough, to claim victory.
In a close presidential race like 2020, every single factor becomes magnified, both the U.S. Senate race and the ballot initiatives were enough to create enough additional democratic turnout for Biden to claim victory.
In 2024, democrats will not have this advantage, and we can predict that Georgia will likely return to its historical norm of voting republican. Kamala Harris will not have the benefit of controversial ballot initiatives and a competitive U.S. Senate race to help raise money and drive turnout.
Is Harris willing to spend a possible $100 million in Georgia to win? Probably not.
Georgia’s 16 electoral votes are very likely to go to Trump.
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