Swing States - Series 2 of 3 - Rust Belt States

How will other races and initiatives on the ballot affect the presidential outcome?

In Series 1 – The Sun Belt States, I was one of the first to move Nevada from a state that was leaning towards Trump to a toss-up. Quite frankly, looking at historical data alone, Trump will have a hard time winning Nevada, but he is still polling ahead of Harris there which is why I categorized it a toss-up.

In Series 3, later this week, I’ll review states that are likely blue or red but have the ability to be put in play depending on the circumstances. They include New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota, Florida and Ohio.

Today, in series 2, we’ll review the Rust Belt States of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It is looking more and more likely that Pennsylvania could be the key to winning the electoral college.

As you know, other campaigns offer levels of dollars and enthusiasm towards turnout. I review four areas – past presidential outcomes, gubernatorial races, U.S. Senate races, and statewide ballot initiatives.

Normally, when I run a statewide race, I determine turnout by county depending on past turnout, local races, and local initiatives and then apply internal polling to those turnout predictions.

In four of the past five presidential/gubernatorial races, I have predicted turnout in Florida within 30,000 votes. I only write this to suggest that there could be local races that bump turnout in certain areas of each of these states which are not included in my analysis. I’m sure both presidential campaigns have parsed this data down to the precinct level, however.

Some things to consider about these three states.

1.        None have gubernatorial races at the same time as the presidential race,

2.        they have few statewide ballot initiatives,

3.        and Trump won them all in 2016 while the republican lost them all in 2012 and 2020.

MICHIGAN

What happened or didn’t during the republican win in 2016?  But, 2016 was one of the cycles when Michigan did not have a U.S. Senate race on the ballot and did not have any ballot initiatives. In 2024, there isn’t an incumbent U.S. Senator (the incumbent democrat isn’t running for reelection) on the ballot and there are no ballot initiatives.

During the two cycles where the democrat won, there were democrat incumbents on the ballot for U.S. Senate as well as ballot initiatives. In 2012, six ballot initiatives all failed and in 2020, there was an initiative to protect electronic personal data (not a divisive, partisan measure).  

Right now, 538 polling has the democrat leading the U.S. Senate race by about two points and within the margin of error. But, there has not been a major poll that has the republican ahead.

For the presidential race, 538 polling average also has Harris leading Trump by about two points, also within the margin of error.

Using the historical and other ballot initiatives model, I would suggest that Michigan is lean Trump, but if you add in an open U.S. Senate race where the democrat is consistently leading, and Harris leading in presidential polling, I would rank the state on those factors alone as lean Harris.  But, outside factors provide the ability for Trump to compete and win.

I will rank Michigan a Toss Up by the time it gets to election day, although, if the election were today, based on polling alone, it would lean Harris.

Trump has some work to do here, but I’ll rank Michigan a Toss Up, barely.

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